Will Messi play in the 2026 World Cup?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 17 contracts. Kalshi at 35%, Polymarket at 19% — a 16pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
35%
8 contracts
Polymarket
19%
9 contracts
Cross-venue gap
16pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$6.7M
17 contracts
Closes
Jul 18, 2028
773 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 35¢ · Polymarket 19¢ · 16pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (19¢, 9 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (35¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
9 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “World Cup Winner” vs “Will Lionel Messi”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
World Cup Winner
World Cup Winner : Germany
0x1595b4…1d16
World Cup Winner : Spain
0x7976b8…2892
World Cup Winner : France
0x9b6fef…b894
World Cup Winner : Portugal
0x4f3421…9fe8
World Cup Winner : Netherlands
0x9be563…eba1
World Cup Winner : England
0x375409…fb1f
World Cup Winner : Brazil
0x30d55d…178a
World Cup Winner : Argentina
0x0c4cd2…457f
Cluster 2
Will Lionel Messi
Cluster 3
Will the Portugal win the 2026 Men's World Cup
Will the Portugal win the 2026 Men's World Cup?: Portugal
KXMENWORLDCUP-26-PT
Cluster 4
Will the France win the 2026 Men's World Cup
Will the France win the 2026 Men's World Cup?: France
KXMENWORLDCUP-26-FR
Cluster 5
Will the Spain win the 2026 Men's World Cup
Will the Spain win the 2026 Men's World Cup?: Spain
KXMENWORLDCUP-26-ES
Cluster 6
Will the Germany win the 2026 Men's World Cup
Will the Germany win the 2026 Men's World Cup?: Germany
KXMENWORLDCUP-26-DE
Cluster 7
Will Neymar play in the World Cup
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
0xb60c04…4567
Cluster 8
Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show
Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show?: Coldplay
KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26-COL
Cluster 9
Will a 2026 FIFA World Cup game be played in Massachusetts
Will a 2026 FIFA World Cup game be played in Massachusetts?: Yes
KXWCLOCATION-26MASS-YES
What moved the line
- Jun 3Coldplay↓14pp42→28¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6Coldplay↑13pp29→42¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Coldplay↑4pp34→38¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Coldplay↑4pp38→42¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Coldplay↑3pp28→31¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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