Will the Brazil win the 2026 Men's World Cup

30-day trend

Analysis

Brazil is currently assigned a 10% probability of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, based on aggregated prediction market data. This reflects the team's historical strength but acknowledges competition from other established nations. Brazil's probability is primarily driven by squad composition and form heading into the tournament, along with the unpredictability inherent in knockout competitions. The 2026 World Cup takes place from June 12 to July 12, 2026, and will definitively resolve this market. Key factors markets appear to weigh include Brazil's current ranking in FIFA standings, performance in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying, recent tournament results (Copa América outcomes), squad depth and injuries of key players, and historical win rates in knockout stages relative to peer nations.

• ›Brazil's FIFA ranking and performance trajectory in the 12 months preceding June 2026
• ›Results and form demonstrated in CONMEBOL qualifying rounds compared to other South American competitors
• ›Injury status and availability of core squad members during the tournament period
• ›Historical conversion rates for Brazil in World Cup knockout stages versus other nations with similar pre-tournament odds
• ›Tournament draw outcome and strength of opponents in Brazil's group stage and potential knockout path

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds