75° or below · Will the high temp in NYC
75° or below is priced at 65¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 59¢ bid, 65¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 6 inside Will the high temp in NYC.
Price history
65¢ current
+16¢Contract brief
If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for May 28, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is less than 76°, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
75° or below
Rank
#1 of 6
Leader
75° or below 74¢
Range
1¢-74¢
Family volume
$114K
Identifier
KXHIGHNY-26MAY28-T76
May 28, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
59¢
Ask
65¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$39K
Family rank
#1 of 6
6 outcomes · Will the high temp in NYC
Closes
May 29, 2026
Family volume
$114K
Orderbook snapshot
59 / 65¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for May 28, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is less than 76°, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 29, 2026
Identifier
KXHIGHNY-26MAY28-T76
Event family
Will the high temp in NYC.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$114K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
75° or below 74¢
Current share
30%
75° or below
kalshi · KXHIGHNY-26MAY28-T76
76° to 77°
kalshi · KXHIGHNY-26MAY28-B76.5
78° to 79°
kalshi · KXHIGHNY-26MAY28-B78.5
80° to 81°
kalshi · KXHIGHNY-26MAY28-B80.5
84° or above
kalshi · KXHIGHNY-26MAY28-T83
82° to 83°
kalshi · KXHIGHNY-26MAY28-B82.5
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.