Will the lot sold price of the La Séance du matin by Henri Matisse on Sotheby's be above $20000000 during the live auction beginning May 19, 07:00 PM EDT?
Leader sits at 7% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $500K
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
Above $1.5M
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$242
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
128 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the lot sold price of the 2026 NBA Finals 'The Hand of OG' Game 4 Game Used Basketball | Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History | OG Anunoby Game Winning Tip-In | NBA Finals Record 14 3-Pointers in a Half by on Sotheby's be above $
Will the lot sold price of the 2026 NBA Finals 'The Hand of OG' Game 4 Game Used Basketball | Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History | OG Anunoby Game Winning Tip-In | NBA Finals Record 14 3-Pointers in a Half by on Sotheby's be above $500000 during the live auction beginning before 2027?: Above $500K
KXART-OG27-500000
Will the lot sold price of the 2026 NBA Finals 'The Hand of OG' Game 4 Game Used Basketball | Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History | OG Anunoby Game Winning Tip-In | NBA Finals Record 14 3-Pointers in a Half by on Sotheby's be above $1500000 during the live auction beginning before 2027?: Above $1.5M
KXART-OG27-1500000
Will the lot sold price of the 2026 NBA Finals 'The Hand of OG' Game 4 Game Used Basketball | Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History | OG Anunoby Game Winning Tip-In | NBA Finals Record 14 3-Pointers in a Half by on Sotheby's be above $4500000 during the live auction beginning before 2027?: Above $4.5M
KXART-OG27-4500000
Will the lot sold price of the 2026 NBA Finals 'The Hand of OG' Game 4 Game Used Basketball | Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History | OG Anunoby Game Winning Tip-In | NBA Finals Record 14 3-Pointers in a Half by on Sotheby's be above $4000000 during the live auction beginning before 2027?: Above $4M
KXART-OG27-4000000
Will the lot sold price of the 2026 NBA Finals 'The Hand of OG' Game 4 Game Used Basketball | Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History | OG Anunoby Game Winning Tip-In | NBA Finals Record 14 3-Pointers in a Half by on Sotheby's be above $3500000 during the live auction beginning before 2027?: Above $3.5M
KXART-OG27-3500000
Will the lot sold price of the 2026 NBA Finals 'The Hand of OG' Game 4 Game Used Basketball | Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History | OG Anunoby Game Winning Tip-In | NBA Finals Record 14 3-Pointers in a Half by on Sotheby's be above $3000000 during the live auction beginning before 2027?: Above $3M
KXART-OG27-3000000
Will the lot sold price of the 2026 NBA Finals 'The Hand of OG' Game 4 Game Used Basketball | Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History | OG Anunoby Game Winning Tip-In | NBA Finals Record 14 3-Pointers in a Half by on Sotheby's be above $2500000 during the live auction beginning before 2027?: Above $2.5M
KXART-OG27-2500000
Will the lot sold price of the 2026 NBA Finals 'The Hand of OG' Game 4 Game Used Basketball | Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History | OG Anunoby Game Winning Tip-In | NBA Finals Record 14 3-Pointers in a Half by on Sotheby's be above $2000000 during the live auction beginning before 2027?: Above $2M
KXART-OG27-2000000
Analysis
The probability reflects market confidence that Matisse's 'La Séance du matin' will sell for at least $20 million at the May 19 Sotheby's auction. Current trading at 77% suggests strong but not overwhelming conviction. The high probability is anchored by comparable Matisse works' recent performance and pre-auction estimates, though actual hammer prices depend on bidder competition in the room. The May 19 auction itself, beginning at 7:00 PM EDT, will definitively resolve the outcome. Related Van Gogh contract pricing at 95% indicates different expectations for competing lots in the same sale.
- ›Pre-auction Sotheby's estimate range and reserve price for the lot, if publicly disclosed
- ›Historical sales prices for Henri Matisse works from similar periods and size at major auction houses in the past 24 months
- ›Liquidity and bid volume on auction eve, reflected in whether estimate-driven price guidance is maintained or revised
- ›Presence and catalog positioning of competing major impressionist works in the same sale that might draw buyer capital
- ›Currency and market conditions on May 19 that could affect international bidder participation
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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