Will the lot sold price of the La Séance du matin by Henri Matisse on Sotheby's be above $20000000 during the live auction beginning May 19, 07:00 PM EDT?
Leader sits at 79% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 78%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $5.2M
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
78¢
Above $5M
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$19K
liquid
Closes
Jun 25, 2026
32 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the lot sold price of
Will the lot sold price of the Petite danseuse de quatorze ans by Edgar Degas on Sotheby's be above $34000000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $34M
KXART-PETI26-34000000
Will the lot sold price of the Bildnis Gertrud Loew (Gertha Felsőványi) (Portrait of Gertrud Loew (Gertha Felsőványi)) by Gustav Klimt on Sotheby's be above $40000000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $40M
KXART-BILD26-40000000
Will the lot sold price of the Petite danseuse de quatorze ans by Edgar Degas on Sotheby's be above $32000000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $32M
KXART-PETI26-32000000
Will the lot sold price of the Danaë by Egon Schiele on Sotheby's be above $26000000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $26M
KXART-DAN26-26000000
Will the lot sold price of the Petite danseuse de quatorze ans by Edgar Degas on Sotheby's be above $28000000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $28M
KXART-PETI26-28000000
Will the lot sold price of the Portrait du garçon en bleu by Chaïm Soutine on Sotheby's be above $3400000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $3.4M
KXART-POR26-3400000
Will the lot sold price of the Homme à la pipe (Le Notaire de Nice) by Amedeo Modigliani on Sotheby's be above $24000000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $24M
KXART-HOM26-24000000
Will the lot sold price of the Petite danseuse de quatorze ans by Edgar Degas on Sotheby's be above $30000000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $30M
KXART-PETI26-30000000
Will the lot sold price of the Portrait de Paul Hugot by Gustave Caillebotte on Sotheby's be above $5800000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $5.8M
KXART-PORT26-5800000
Will the lot sold price of the Two Studies for Self-Portrait by Francis Bacon on Sotheby's be above $16000000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $16M
KXART-TWO26-16000000
Will the lot sold price of the Homme à la pipe (Le Notaire de Nice) by Amedeo Modigliani on Sotheby's be above $22000000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $22M
KXART-HOM26-22000000
Will the lot sold price of the Bildnis Gertrud Loew (Gertha Felsőványi) (Portrait of Gertrud Loew (Gertha Felsőványi)) by Gustav Klimt on Sotheby's be above $38000000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $38M
KXART-BILD26-38000000
Will the lot sold price of the Two Studies for Self-Portrait by Francis Bacon on Sotheby's be above $18000000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $18M
KXART-TWO26-18000000
Will the lot sold price of the Lydia (Étude pour Portrait au manteau bleu) by Henri Matisse on Sotheby's be above $2500000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $2.5M
KXART-LYD26-2500000
Will the lot sold price of the Portrait du garçon en bleu by Chaïm Soutine on Sotheby's be above $3200000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $3.2M
KXART-POR26-3200000
Will the lot sold price of the Portrait de Paul Hugot by Gustave Caillebotte on Sotheby's be above $5000000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $5M
KXART-PORT26-5000000
Will the lot sold price of the Portrait de Paul Hugot by Gustave Caillebotte on Sotheby's be above $6200000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $6.2M
KXART-PORT26-6200000
Will the lot sold price of the Homme à la pipe (Le Notaire de Nice) by Amedeo Modigliani on Sotheby's be above $20000000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $20M
KXART-HOM26-20000000
Will the lot sold price of the Woman in a Grey Sweater by Lucian Freud on Sotheby's be above $4500000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $4.5M
KXART-WOM26-4500000
Will the lot sold price of the Portrait de Paul Hugot by Gustave Caillebotte on Sotheby's be above $5200000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $5.2M
KXART-PORT26-5200000
Analysis
The probability reflects market confidence that Matisse's 'La Séance du matin' will sell for at least $20 million at the May 19 Sotheby's auction. Current trading at 77% suggests strong but not overwhelming conviction. The high probability is anchored by comparable Matisse works' recent performance and pre-auction estimates, though actual hammer prices depend on bidder competition in the room. The May 19 auction itself, beginning at 7:00 PM EDT, will definitively resolve the outcome. Related Van Gogh contract pricing at 95% indicates different expectations for competing lots in the same sale.
- ›Pre-auction Sotheby's estimate range and reserve price for the lot, if publicly disclosed
- ›Historical sales prices for Henri Matisse works from similar periods and size at major auction houses in the past 24 months
- ›Liquidity and bid volume on auction eve, reflected in whether estimate-driven price guidance is maintained or revised
- ›Presence and catalog positioning of competing major impressionist works in the same sale that might draw buyer capital
- ›Currency and market conditions on May 19 that could affect international bidder participation
What moved the line
- May 19Above $4.5M↑54pp20→74¢ · Kalshi
- May 19Above $30M↑49pp9→58¢ · Kalshi
- May 19Above $32M↑45pp6→51¢ · Kalshi
- May 19Above $20M↑45pp33→78¢ · Kalshi
- May 19Above $28M↑42pp26→68¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FClast 60% · 0d
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC - More Marketslast 83% · 0d
- Will it be reported that the United States Department of State issues one or more United States passports to U.S. citizens where the passport contains an image or visual representation of Donald Trump’s face before Jan 1, 2027last 82% · 0d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 0d
- Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinetlast 95% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.