SimpleFunctions
KalshiDec 29, 2026234 days left

Will The Marías have a top 20 song this year?

This contract is priced at 27¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 10¢ bid, 27¢ ask, 17¢ spread.

Implied probability

27¢
$489 volume
$200 liquidity
4360% of event volume

Event outcomes

16

Family volume

$11

Best sibling

Travis Scott 45¢

Ticker

KX20SONG-26DEC26-MARI

Market snapshot

The Marías in market context.

This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will The Marías have a top 20 song this year?. The displayed quote is 27¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $0. In the KX20SONG-26DEC26 family, this outcome ranks #12 of 16 by current quote across 16 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 5:53 AM UTC.

Outcome

The Marías

Family rank

#12 of 16

Venue

Kalshi

Current quote

27¢

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until Dec 29, 2026

24h volume

$0

Family context

16 outcomes · KX20SONG-26DEC26

Quote range

2¢-99¢

Family leader

Drake 99¢

Last updated

May 9, 2026, 5:53 AM UTC · 7m ago

Venue identifier: KX20SONG-26DEC26-MARI. Family volume: $11.

Price history

27¢ current

+16¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 13, 2026May 8, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

10 / 27¢

Kalshi
17¢ spread
BidSize
100¢452
10¢200
5¢84
2¢359
AskSize
27¢201
71¢51
72¢31
75¢373
97¢1

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If The Marías has a top 20 single on the Billboard Hot 100 by the Billboard issue for Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 29, 2026

Identifier

KX20SONG-26DEC26-MARI

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1401.6%

IY (No)

17.3%

Adj IY

1402%

CRI

9

RV

541%

VR

1.54

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

1401.6%
17.3%
Adj IY
1402%
9
RV
541%
VR
1.54
IAR
0.3/h
Overround
14.2%

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