Will Billie Eilish have a top 20 song this year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 25% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
25%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
20 contracts
Closes
Dec 29, 2026
126 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Young Thug have a top 20 song this year
Will Young Thug have a top 20 song this year?: Young Thug
KX20SONG-26DEC26-THU
Cluster 2
Will The Weeknd have a top 20 song this year
Will The Weeknd have a top 20 song this year?: The Weeknd
KX20SONG-26DEC26-WEE
Cluster 3
Will Mariah Carey have a top 20 song this year
Will Mariah Carey have a top 20 song this year?: Mariah Carey
KX20SONG-26DEC26-MAR
Cluster 4
Will mgk have a top 20 song this year
Will mgk have a top 20 song this year?: mgk
KX20SONG-26DEC26-MGK
Cluster 5
Will KATSEYE have a top 20 song this year
Will KATSEYE have a top 20 song this year?: KATSEYE
KX20SONG-26DEC26-KAT
Cluster 6
Will Kendrick Lamar have a top 20 song this year
Will Kendrick Lamar have a top 20 song this year?: Kendrick Lamar
KX20SONG-26DEC26-KEN
Cluster 7
Will Lana Del Rey have a top 20 song this year
Will Lana Del Rey have a top 20 song this year?: Lana Del Rey
KX20SONG-26DEC26-LAN
Cluster 8
Will Lil Yachty have a top 20 song this year
Will Lil Yachty have a top 20 song this year?: Lil Yachty
KX20SONG-26DEC26-YAC
Cluster 9
Will Ice Spice have a top 20 song this year
Will Ice Spice have a top 20 song this year?: Ice Spice
KX20SONG-26DEC26-ICE
Cluster 10
Will Ed Sheeran have a top 20 song this year
Will Ed Sheeran have a top 20 song this year?: Ed Sheeran
KX20SONG-26DEC26-ED
Cluster 11
Will Travis Scott have a top 20 song this year
Will Travis Scott have a top 20 song this year?: Travis Scott
KX20SONG-26DEC26-TRA
Cluster 12
Will Eminem have a top 20 song this year
Will Eminem have a top 20 song this year?: Eminem
KX20SONG-26DEC26-EMI
Cluster 13
Will Kanye West / Ye have a top 20 song this year
Will Kanye West / Ye have a top 20 song this year?: Kanye West / Ye
KX20SONG-26DEC26-KAN
Cluster 14
Will Rihanna have a top 20 song this year
Will Rihanna have a top 20 song this year?: Rihanna
KX20SONG-26DEC26-RIH
Cluster 15
Will Billie Eilish have a top 20 song this year
Will Billie Eilish have a top 20 song this year?: Billie Eilish
KX20SONG-26DEC26-BIL
Cluster 16
Will Post Malone have a top 20 song this year
Will Post Malone have a top 20 song this year?: Post Malone
KX20SONG-26DEC26-POS
Cluster 17
Will J Balvin have a top 20 song this year
Will J Balvin have a top 20 song this year?: J Balvin
KX20SONG-26DEC26-JBA
Cluster 18
Will Ozuna have a top 20 song this year
Will Ozuna have a top 20 song this year?: Ozuna
KX20SONG-26DEC26-OZU
Cluster 19
Will Coldplay have a top 20 song this year
Will Coldplay have a top 20 song this year?: Coldplay
KX20SONG-26DEC26-COL
Cluster 20
Will Dua Lipa have a top 20 song this year
Will Dua Lipa have a top 20 song this year?: Dua Lipa
KX20SONG-26DEC26-CUA
Analysis
This market estimates a 24% chance that Billie Eilish will chart a top 20 song on the Billboard Hot 100 at some point during 2026. As of mid-July, most of the year remains ahead, but Eilish has not yet released major charting material in 2026. The probability reflects uncertainty around her release schedule and commercial performance relative to other artists. Key drivers include whether she has an active album cycle underway, the competitive intensity of the chart in the second half of 2026, and her historical charting consistency. The main resolution catalyst will be any new single releases and their chart performance through the remainder of the year. Currently, low trading volume ($0 in 24h) suggests limited market interest in this specific contract.
- ›Billie Eilish has not released a major chart-tested single yet in 2026, with no confirmed album release date or lead single announced as of mid-July
- ›Her previous album cycle (Happier Than Ever, 2021) produced multiple top 20 entries, establishing a baseline for capability but not certainty for every release period
- ›The chart landscape in H2 2026 will determine difficulty threshold; a crowded field from other major artists could suppress her charting probability
- ›Trading volume at $0 over 24 hours indicates minimal conviction or disagreement among contract holders about the current 39¢ pricing
- ›Release timing matters significantly—singles released in late Q4 have less opportunity to accumulate chart weeks and qualify for year-end ranking
What moved the line
- Aug 18KATSEYE↓13pp63→50¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Kendrick Lamar↓12pp39→27¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Billie Eilish↑11pp33→44¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19The Weeknd↓10pp45→35¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Travis Scott↓8pp35→27¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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