Will Billie Eilish have a top 20 song this year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$63
18 contracts
Closes
Dec 29, 2026
234 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
18 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Coldplay have a top 20 song this year
Will Coldplay have a top 20 song this year?: Coldplay
KX20SONG-26DEC26-COL
Cluster 2
Will Travis Scott have a top 20 song this year
Will Travis Scott have a top 20 song this year?: Travis Scott
KX20SONG-26DEC26-TRA
Cluster 3
Will Fred again.. have a top 20 song this year
Will Fred again.. have a top 20 song this year?: Fred again..
KX20SONG-26DEC26-FRE
Cluster 4
Will ROSALÍA have a top 20 song this year
Will ROSALÍA have a top 20 song this year?: ROSALÍA
KX20SONG-26DEC26-ROS
Cluster 5
Will Childish Gambino have a top 20 song this year
Will Childish Gambino have a top 20 song this year?: Childish Gambino
KX20SONG-26DEC26-CHI
Cluster 6
Will YoungBoy Never Broke Again have a top 20 song this year
Will YoungBoy Never Broke Again have a top 20 song this year?: YoungBoy Never Broke Again
KX20SONG-26DEC26-YOU
Cluster 7
Will Benson Boone have a top 20 song this year
Will Benson Boone have a top 20 song this year?: Benson Boone
KX20SONG-26DEC26-BEN
Cluster 8
Will Maroon 5 have a top 20 song this year
Will Maroon 5 have a top 20 song this year?: Maroon 5
KX20SONG-26DEC26-MARO
Cluster 9
Will Trippie Redd have a top 20 song this year
Will Trippie Redd have a top 20 song this year?: Trippie Redd
KX20SONG-26DEC26-TRI
Cluster 10
Will David Guetta have a top 20 song this year
Will David Guetta have a top 20 song this year?: David Guetta
KX20SONG-26DEC26-DAV
Cluster 11
Will Ed Sheeran have a top 20 song this year
Will Ed Sheeran have a top 20 song this year?: Ed Sheeran
KX20SONG-26DEC26-ED
Cluster 12
Will The Marías have a top 20 song this year
Will The Marías have a top 20 song this year?: The Marías
KX20SONG-26DEC26-MARI
Cluster 13
Will The Weeknd have a top 20 song this year
Will The Weeknd have a top 20 song this year?: The Weeknd
KX20SONG-26DEC26-WEE
Cluster 14
Will Eminem have a top 20 song this year
Will Eminem have a top 20 song this year?: Eminem
KX20SONG-26DEC26-EMI
Cluster 15
Will Kanye West / Ye have a top 20 song this year
Will Kanye West / Ye have a top 20 song this year?: Kanye West / Ye
KX20SONG-26DEC26-KAN
Cluster 16
Will Rihanna have a top 20 song this year
Will Rihanna have a top 20 song this year?: Rihanna
KX20SONG-26DEC26-RIH
Cluster 17
Will Billie Eilish have a top 20 song this year
Will Billie Eilish have a top 20 song this year?: Billie Eilish
KX20SONG-26DEC26-BIL
Cluster 18
Will Kendrick Lamar have a top 20 song this year
Will Kendrick Lamar have a top 20 song this year?: Kendrick Lamar
KX20SONG-26DEC26-KEN
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Billie Eilish releases or has a song that ranks in the top 20 on the Billboard Hot 100 or similar major chart during 2026. The 20% assessment suggests modest odds, indicating either a recent lack of commercial momentum or absence of confirmed upcoming releases. Key drivers include whether she has new music scheduled for release this year and how it performs against competition from other established artists. The main uncertainty resolver will be actual chart performance data as any new singles release and accumulate weeks on major charts. Current market activity shows significant interest in near-term streaming metrics, suggesting traders are monitoring short-term performance signals as proxies for longer-term commercial success.
- ›No confirmed major Billie Eilish single release or album announcement as of early May 2026 that would guarantee chart eligibility
- ›J. Cole and Nicki Minaj are priced higher (19¢ and 25¢) despite comparable market conditions, suggesting traders perceive stronger likelihood of output from those artists
- ›Streaming volume contracts for Eilish show 8-9¢ pricing for weekly targets around 232-237 million streams, indicating baseline audience activity but uncertainty about chart breakthrough
- ›Historical chart performance: artists require sustained commercial output and radio/streaming promotion to achieve top 20 placements in competitive market conditions
- ›Time remaining in 2026 (approximately 7-8 months) provides window for new releases, but lack of announcement suggests lower probability of near-term activity
What moved the line
- May 2The Weeknd↑3pp61→64¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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