The Marías · KXALBUMRELEASE-26
The Marías is priced at 48¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 35¢ bid, 47¢ ask, 12¢ spread. This outcome ranks #11 of 16 inside KXALBUMRELEASE-26.
Price history
48¢ current
+13¢Contract brief
If The Marías releases a new album in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
The Marías
Rank
#11 of 16
Leader
Olivia Rodrigo 99¢
Range
11¢-99¢
Family volume
$897
Identifier
KXALBUMRELEASE-26-MARI
May 28, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 28m ago
Implied probability
Bid
35¢
Ask
47¢
Spread
12¢
Reported volume
$2K
Family rank
#11 of 16
16 outcomes · KXALBUMRELEASE-26
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$897
Orderbook snapshot
35 / 47¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If The Marías releases a new album in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXALBUMRELEASE-26-MARI
Event family
KXALBUMRELEASE-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$897
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Olivia Rodrigo 99¢
Current share
0%
Olivia Rodrigo
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-OLIV
Quavo
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-QUA
Future
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-FUT
Lil Uzi Vert
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-UZI
Lana Del Rey
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-LAN
2 Chainz
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-2CH
Ice Spice
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-ICE
Kendrick Lamar
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-KEN
Polo G
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-POL
21 Savage
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-21S
The Marías
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-MARI
Pharrell Williams
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-PHA
Rihanna
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-RIH
Tyga
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-TYG
Addison Rae
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-ADD
Migos
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-MIG
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.