Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 20% and 100%?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 20% and 100%?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing May 26, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1199% implied yield on Yes contracts versus 6.8% on No, suggesting the 7¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of a 20-100% victory margin for Paxton.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1199% implied yield on Yes contracts versus 6.8% on No, suggesting the 7¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of a 20-100% victory margin for Paxton. The sharp 13¢ to 7¢ price decline over seven days combined with minimal 24-hour volume of $3.20 indicates low liquidity and potential capitulation selling rather than fundamental repricing. With 405 days to expiration and a moderate cliff risk index of 13, this appears to be a mispriced contrarian opportunity if you believe Paxton will win decisively in a Republican primary runoff scenario.
Resolution rules
If the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff falls between 20% and 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTXRSENRUNOFFMOV-26MAY26-KPAX-P60 yes 100