Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 5% and 10%
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
97%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$588K
1 contracts
Closes
May 26, 2027
347 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 20% and 100%
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Ken Paxton will win the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff by a margin between 5% and 10%. At 29%, this outcome ranks slightly below the 0-5% margin scenario (also 29%), indicating uncertainty about whether Paxton's victory will be narrowly decisive or moderately comfortable. The probability is shaped by primary election results and Paxton's incumbency status, weighed against potential challenger strength and turnout dynamics in a runoff setting. The Texas primary election scheduled for early March 2026 will be the critical juncture determining whether a runoff occurs and what candidate configurations materialize. Resolution depends on the final vote count in the general election and subsequent runoff if needed, with margins sensitive to voter mobilization, demographic shifts, and any intervening political developments affecting Paxton's standing among Republican primary voters.
- ›Ken Paxton's 2022 general election performance and polling trends in Texas Republican primaries establish baseline expectations for his electoral strength
- ›Runoff dynamics typically produce different turnout and voting patterns than primary elections, affecting margin predictions by potentially shifting which candidate demographics participate at higher rates
- ›The identity and political positioning of Paxton's primary opponent(s) directly influences runoff feasibility and competitive intensity, with weaker challengers producing larger margins
- ›Statewide political environment in Texas for 2026 midterm cycle, including gubernatorial race dynamics and national GOP momentum, creates contextual factors affecting Senate race margins
- ›The 5-10% margin band sits between tighter (0-5%) and comfortable (10%+) victory scenarios, making it sensitive to relatively small swings in voter behavior or turnout assumptions
Recently closed in election 2026
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- Will Rom Reddy qualify for the runoff in the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primarylast 51% · 3d
- Will Richard Davis be the Democratic nominee for TX-14last 6% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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