SimpleFunctions
KalshiNov 3, 2027549 days left

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Wyoming be at least 46 percentage points?

This contract is priced at 41¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 28¢ bid, 31¢ ask, 3¢ spread.

Implied probability

41¢
$112 volume
$112 liquidity
24% of event volume

Event outcomes

11

Family volume

$459

Best sibling

Republicans, 26+ pts 91¢

Ticker

KXMIDTERMMOV-WYSENR-P46

Price history

41¢ current

+15¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 30, 2026May 2, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

28 / 31¢

Kalshi
3¢ spread
BidSize
100¢4.5K
100¢246
28¢100
27¢200
24¢4
AskSize
31¢12
36¢100
38¢200
48¢300
92¢3.0K

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Wyoming by 46 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Nov 3, 2027

Identifier

KXMIDTERMMOV-WYSENR-P46

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

170.9%

IY (No)

25.8%

Adj IY

76%

CRI

3

Overround

5.5%

LAS

0.11

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

170.9%
25.8%
Adj IY
76%
3
Overround
5.5%
LAS
0.11

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