SimpleFunctions

Monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 above $0.50 in April 2027

Above $0.50 is priced at 65¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 64¢ bid, 65¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 7 inside Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $.

Price history

65¢ current

+16¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢
Jun 17, 2026Jun 18, 2026

Contract brief

If the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour is above $0.5 in April 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above $0.50

Rank

#1 of 7

Leader

Above $0.50 64¢

Range

9¢-64¢

Family volume

$228

Identifier

KXRTX5090MS-27APR-0.500

Jun 18, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 28m ago

Implied probability

65¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 18, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 28m ago

Bid

64¢

Ask

65¢

Spread

24h volume

$29

Family rank

#1 of 7

7 outcomes · Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $

Closes

May 1, 2027

Family volume

$228

Orderbook snapshot

64 / 65¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
100¢1.2K
64¢422
63¢200
62¢80
2¢51
AskSize
65¢325
68¢300
69¢161
70¢300
98¢53

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour is above $0.5 in April 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

May 1, 2027

Identifier

KXRTX5090MS-27APR-0.500

SF Signal
SF Index
204.75
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$228

Outcomes

7

Highest price

Above $0.50 64¢

Current share

13%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

64.8%

IY (No)

204.8%

Adj IY

205%

CRI

2

RV

34730%

VR

77.78

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

64.8%
204.8%
Adj IY
205%
2
RV
34730%
VR
77.78
IAR
1.8/h
Overround
0.9%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.