Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.25 in May 2027
Leader sits at 90% across 15 bound outcomes, runner-up at 78%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $0.25
Outcomes
15
winner-take-all
Runner-up
78¢
Above $0.25
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$468
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 1, 2027
363 days
Venue
Kalshi
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.50 in November 2026?: Above $1.50
KXRTX5090MS-26NOV-1.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.75 in November 2026?: Above $1.75
KXRTX5090MS-26NOV-1.750
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.75 in October 2026?: Above $1.75
KXRTX5090MS-26OCT-1.750
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $2.00 in February 2027?: Above $2.00
KXRTX5090MS-27FEB-2.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.50 in December 2026?: Above $1.50
KXRTX5090MS-26DEC-1.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.25 in December 2026?: Above $1.25
KXRTX5090MS-26DEC-1.250
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.25 in July 2027?: Above $1.25
KXRTX5090MS-27JUL-1.250
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.00 in July 2027?: Above $1.00
KXRTX5090MS-27JUL-1.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.25 in December 2026?: Above $0.25
KXRTX5090MS-26DEC-0.250
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.50 in July 2027?: Above $1.50
KXRTX5090MS-27JUL-1.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.50 in April 2027?: Above $0.50
KXRTX5090MS-27APR-0.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.25 in June 2027?: Above $0.25
KXRTX5090MS-27JUN-0.250
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.50 in July 2027?: Above $0.50
KXRTX5090MS-27JUL-0.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.00 in December 2026?: Above $1.00
KXRTX5090MS-26DEC-1.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.25 in August 2027?: Above $0.25
KXRTX5090MS-27AUG-0.250
Analysis
This market estimates an 86% probability that NVIDIA's RTX 5090 will have a monthly average compute price above $1.25 in May 2027. The current high probability reflects expectations of sustained demand and pricing stability roughly 11 months from now. Key drivers include near-term supply constraints through late 2026—evidenced by much lower probabilities for hitting $1.00 in July and August—followed by potential normalization as supply catches up. The contract chain shows traders pricing in initial scarcity premiums that erode over time, with confidence declining sharply for higher price thresholds in 2027. Resolution will depend on actual RTX 5090 availability, competing GPU supply, and enterprise compute demand intensity during that period.
- ›The near-term December 2026 contract trades at 69¢ (69% probability of >$0.50), suggesting traders expect rapid price appreciation from current levels to May 2027
- ›Probability drops significantly for higher thresholds ($1.50+ by January 2027 trades at only 8¢), indicating skepticism about sustained premium pricing beyond initial launch scarcity
- ›The 86% probability for $1.25 in May sits between near-term scarcity premiums and longer-term price normalization, placing it at an inflection point where supply catches up but demand remains elevated
- ›Summer 2026 contracts show very low probabilities for $1.00+ (6-9¢), implying expected inventory constraints have already been priced in through late 2026
- ›The multi-month spread of outcomes suggests pricing follows a supply-normalization curve rather than a spike-and-crash pattern
What moved the line
- Aug 2Above $0.50↑23pp24→47¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 29Above $0.25↓21pp89→68¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 30Above $0.50↓21pp66→45¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 31Above $0.50↑15pp45→60¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 30Above $1.25↑10pp4→14¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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