Portugal · KXMENWORLDCUP-26
Portugal is priced at 11¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 10¢ bid, 10¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside KXMENWORLDCUP-26.
Price history
11¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If Portugal wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Portugal
Rank
#3 of 16
Leader
Spain 16¢
Range
1¢-16¢
Family volume
$5.3M
Identifier
KXMENWORLDCUP-26-PT
Jun 8, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
10¢
Ask
10¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$460K
Family rank
#3 of 16
16 outcomes · KXMENWORLDCUP-26
Closes
Jul 18, 2028
Family volume
$5.3M
Orderbook snapshot
10 / 10¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Portugal wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 18, 2028
Identifier
KXMENWORLDCUP-26-PT
Event family
KXMENWORLDCUP-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$5.3M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Spain 16¢
Current share
9%
Spain
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-ES
France
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-FR
Portugal
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-PT
England
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-GB
Argentina
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-AR
Brazil
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-BR
Netherlands
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-NL
Morocco
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-MA
Mexico
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-MX
Norway
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-NO
Belgium
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-BE
Japan
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-JP
USA
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-US
Switzerland
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-CH
Ecuador
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-EC
Turkey
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-TR
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
sports
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 11% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.