Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026.
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14¢Bid/Ask 13/14¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $64.43·OI $4,413.8·Closes Jul 1, 2026·70d remaining
KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-24
7-day price15 snapshots · 5 regime
18¢13¢ current
Apr 813¢Apr 15
Resolution rules
If the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 20 to 29.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Label
neutral
Score
0.577
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 6:05:29 PM
SF edge 15.0¢ yesObservability mediumEvent type political
Edges (1)
NO +15¢thesis — US military assets pinned in Middle East — largest deployment since 2003. Pacifi
Has thesisIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 5:53:17 PM
Trade
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sf trade KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-24 yes 100