Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 6¢ price implying only 6% probability for a 30-39.99% tariff band, yet the implied yield on the Yes side reaches an astronomical 7610%—suggesting either severe illiquidity or market participants pricing in near-zero likelihood of this specific range.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 6¢ price implying only 6% probability for a 30-39.99% tariff band, yet the implied yield on the Yes side reaches an astronomical 7610%—suggesting either severe illiquidity or market participants pricing in near-zero likelihood of this specific range. The zero 24-hour volume combined with modest $3,952 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread indicates this contract lacks meaningful liquidity to validate the price discovery, making the yield figure more theoretical than actionable. With 75 days to expiry and neutral regime conditions, the Cliff Risk Index of 16 suggests moderate event concentration risk, though the extreme yield differential warrants caution about whether this represents genuine opportunity or simply a thinly-traded contract with stale pricing.
Resolution rules
If the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 30 to 39.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-34 yes 100