Tariff rate on China imports between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026
Between 30% and 39.99% is priced at 3¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 4 inside Will the tariff rate on China imports be.
Price history
3¢ current
−5¢Contract brief
If the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 30 to 39.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Between 30% and 39.99%
Rank
#3 of 4
Leader
Between 10% and 19.99% 83¢
Range
1¢-83¢
Family volume
$31
Identifier
KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-34
Jun 7, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 22m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
0¢
Reported volume
$12K
Family rank
#3 of 4
4 outcomes · Will the tariff rate on China imports be
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Family volume
$31
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 3¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 30 to 39.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Identifier
KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-34
Event family
Will the tariff rate on China imports be.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$31
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Between 10% and 19.99% 83¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.625
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.