Tariff rate on China imports below 10% on Jul 1, 2026
Below 10% is priced at 10¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 9¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside Will the tariff rate on China imports be.
Price history
10¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
If the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is below 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Below 10%
Rank
#2 of 4
Leader
Between 10% and 19.99% 82¢
Range
1¢-82¢
Family volume
$13
Identifier
KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-5
Jun 8, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
9¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
2¢
Reported volume
$18K
Family rank
#2 of 4
4 outcomes · Will the tariff rate on China imports be
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Family volume
$13
Orderbook snapshot
9 / 11¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is below 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Identifier
KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-5
Event family
Will the tariff rate on China imports be.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$13
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Between 10% and 19.99% 82¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.