What is the current probability for "Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 7¢ (7% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 241 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2011.2% and 11.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

PolymarketDec 31, 2026241 days left

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

This contract is priced at 7¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 6¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 1¢ spread.

Open on Polymarket JSON + orderbook Enter terminal

Implied probability

7¢

$105K volume

$33K liquidity

100% of event volume

Event outcomes

Family volume

$105K

Best sibling

—

Ticker

0x1015d806…0697

Price history

7¢ current

−45¢

Apr 28, 2026May 3, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

6 / 7¢

Polymarket

1¢ spread

BidSize

100¢7.8K

6¢4.5K

5¢920

4¢1.5K

3¢50

2¢500

AskSize

7¢82

8¢3.9K

9¢1.9K

13¢369

32¢3.0K

33¢20K

34¢205

44¢304

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Identifier

0x1015d806…0697

Event family

This market.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$105K

Outcomes

Highest price