Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

This extremely illiquid market with zero 24-hour volume shows a stark asymmetry in risk-adjusted returns, with the "Yes" side offering an extraordinary 814% annualized yield despite the 8¢ price reflecting only an 8% invasion probability. The $52,890 open interest concentrated at such a low price point suggests this is primarily a tail-risk hedge rather than a genuine probability assessment, with the massive yield differential indicating severe mispricing or a market designed to attract speculative interest in an extraordinarily unlikely geopolitical event. With 258 days to expiration and a 12 Cliff Risk Index, this contract carries substantial binary event risk and should be treated as a pure speculation vehicle rather than a calibrated probability estimate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade