Before Jan 1, 2030 · Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before J
Before Jan 1, 2030 is priced at 54¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 50¢ bid, 54¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 5 inside Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before J.
Price history
54¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2030
Rank
#1 of 5
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2030 50¢
Range
2¢-50¢
Family volume
$391
Identifier
KXTAIWANLVL4-30JAN01
Jun 1, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 26m ago
Implied probability
Bid
50¢
Ask
54¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$17K
Family rank
#1 of 5
5 outcomes · Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before J
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
Family volume
$391
Orderbook snapshot
50 / 54¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
Identifier
KXTAIWANLVL4-30JAN01
Event family
Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before J.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$391
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2030 50¢
Current share
0%
Before Jan 1, 2030
kalshi · KXTAIWANLVL4-30JAN01
Before Jan 1, 2029
kalshi · KXTAIWANLVL4-29JAN01
Before Jan 1, 2028
kalshi · KXTAIWANLVL4-28JAN01
Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · KXTAIWANLVL4-27JAN01
Before Jul 1, 2026
kalshi · KXTAIWANLVL4-26JUL01
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.485
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.