Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2030?
Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2030?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2030.
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50¢Bid/Ask 45/50¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $0·OI $6,549.95·Closes Jan 1, 2030·1350d remaining
KXTAIWANLVL4-30JAN01
7-day price77 snapshots · 3 regime
58¢45¢ current
Apr 844¢Apr 21
Resolution rules
If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Label
neutral
Score
0.577
Spread
5¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:19:19 PM
SF edge 15.0¢ yesObservability mediumEvent type political
Edges (1)
NO +15¢thesis — US military assets pinned in Middle East — largest deployment since 2003. Pacifi
Has thesisIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM
Trade
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sf trade KXTAIWANLVL4-30JAN01 yes 100