Before Jan 1, 2029 · Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 20
Before Jan 1, 2029 is priced at 36¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 36¢ bid, 37¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 20.
Price history
36¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2029
Rank
#2 of 4
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2030 44¢
Range
5¢-44¢
Family volume
$105
Identifier
KXTAIWANLVL4-29JAN01
Jul 22, 2026, 7:08 AM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
36¢
Ask
37¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$105
Family rank
#2 of 4
4 outcomes · Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 20
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
Family volume
$105
Orderbook snapshot
36 / 37¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
Identifier
KXTAIWANLVL4-29JAN01
Event family
Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 20.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$105
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2030 44¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.