SimpleFunctions
KalshiMay 15, 20264 days left

Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 98.00 and 98.99 on May 15, 2026?

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 11 May 2026Methodology

This contract is priced at 7¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 6¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 1¢ spread.

Implied probability

7¢
$2K volume
$2K liquidity
5% of event volume

Event outcomes

15

Family volume

$50K

Best sibling

$102 or above 32¢

Ticker

KXWTIW-26MAY15-B98.5

Market snapshot

$98 to 98.99 in market context.

This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 98.00 and 98.99 on May 15, 2026?. The displayed quote is 7¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $2K. In the Will the WTI front-month settle oil price family, this outcome ranks #3 of 15 by current quote across 15 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC.

Outcome

$98 to 98.99

Family rank

#3 of 15

Venue

Kalshi

Current quote

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until May 15, 2026

24h volume

$2K

Family context

15 outcomes · Will the WTI front-month settle oil price

Quote range

2¢-32¢

Family leader

$102 or above 32¢

Last updated

May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 13m ago

Venue identifier: KXWTIW-26MAY15-B98.5. Family volume: $50K.

Price history

7¢ current

+5¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
May 8, 2026May 11, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

6 / 7¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
6¢100
5¢30
4¢391
3¢402
2¢5.3K
AskSize
7¢1.8K
8¢570
9¢20
10¢5.3K
12¢60

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on May 15, 2026 is between $98.00 and 98.99, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

May 15, 2026

Identifier

KXWTIW-26MAY15-B98.5

SF Signal
SF Index
83330.00
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

CRI

16

VR

0.38

IAR

0.8/h

Overround

-0.0%

LAS

0.17

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

16
VR
0.38
IAR
0.8/h
Overround
-0.0%
LAS
0.17

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SimpleFunctions context

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.