Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 85.00 and 85.99 on Apr 24, 2026
Leader sits at 38% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $93.99
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
$92.00 to $92.99
Spread
22pp
contested
24h volume
$97K
liquid
Closes
Jun 5, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 93.99 USD/Bbl on Jun 5, 2026?: Above $93.99
KXWTIW-26JUN0514-T93.99
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 93.00 and 93.99 USD/Bbl on Jun 5, 2026?: $93.00 to $93.99
KXWTIW-26JUN0514-B93.50
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 92.00 and 92.99 USD/Bbl on Jun 5, 2026?: $92.00 to $92.99
KXWTIW-26JUN0514-B92.50
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 90.00 and 90.99 USD/Bbl on Jun 5, 2026?: $90.00 to $90.99
KXWTIW-26JUN0514-B90.50
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 91.00 and 91.99 USD/Bbl on Jun 5, 2026?: $91.00 to $91.99
KXWTIW-26JUN0514-B91.50
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 88.00 and 88.99 USD/Bbl on Jun 5, 2026?: $88.00 to $88.99
KXWTIW-26JUN0514-B88.50
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 89.00 and 89.99 USD/Bbl on Jun 5, 2026?: $89.00 to $89.99
KXWTIW-26JUN0514-B89.50
Analysis
This market reflects the probability that WTI crude oil will close between $85.00 and $85.99 on April 24, 2026. At 36%, this is the highest-priced outcome among eleven competing price bands for that settlement date. The current pricing suggests traders view a sub-$96 close as more likely (13% implied), indicating broader expectations that oil may trade lower than current levels. The actual settlement price on April 24 will determine the outcome, with trading activity and supply/demand dynamics in the weeks leading up to that date driving shifts in probabilities. Geopolitical events, OPEC production decisions, US economic data, and global demand signals typically influence crude direction significantly.
- ›WTI is currently trading at levels substantially above the $85–$86 range, requiring roughly 10–15% downward movement to settle in this band
- ›The $109+ contract commands the highest probability (36%), suggesting market consensus leans toward higher prices rather than this lower-bound scenario
- ›OPEC meeting outcomes, US inventory reports, and macroeconomic indicators between now and April 24 will materially affect settlement price
- ›Open interest and trading volume are concentrated on contracts $96 and above, indicating asymmetric conviction toward higher price outcomes
- ›Seasonal demand patterns and geopolitical tensions historically drive significant WTI volatility in comparable timeframes
What moved the line
- Jun 3Above $93.99↑21pp42→63¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Above $93.99↑16pp21→37¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Above $93.99↓14pp63→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4$92.00 to $92.99↑6pp5→11¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Above $93.99↑5pp37→42¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in oil
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- What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $110last 49% · 5d
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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