Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.54 on May 1, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 1, 2026. 1 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.54 on May 1, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 100000.0% and 1841.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.54 on May 1, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	>100,000%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1841.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	50000%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.54 on May 1, 2026?

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