At least 15 presidential actions in the week of May 24, 2026
At least 15 is priced at 5¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 4¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 8 inside Will there be at least.
Price history
5¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If Donald Trump has taken at least 15 presidential actions from May 24, 2026 through May 30, 2026 (as checked on the “Presidential Actions” page at whitehouse.gov at 10:00 AM ET on May 31, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 15
Rank
#8 of 8
Leader
At least 1 98¢
Range
3¢-98¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXTRUMPACT-26MAY24-T15
May 25, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$121
Family rank
#8 of 8
8 outcomes · Will there be at least
Closes
May 31, 2026
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 4¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Donald Trump has taken at least 15 presidential actions from May 24, 2026 through May 30, 2026 (as checked on the “Presidential Actions” page at whitehouse.gov at 10:00 AM ET on May 31, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
KXTRUMPACT-26MAY24-T15
Event family
Will there be at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
At least 1 98¢
Current share
6%
At least 1
kalshi · KXTRUMPACT-26MAY24-T1
At least 2
kalshi · KXTRUMPACT-26MAY24-T2
At least 3
kalshi · KXTRUMPACT-26MAY24-T3
At least 4
kalshi · KXTRUMPACT-26MAY24-T4
At least 5
kalshi · KXTRUMPACT-26MAY24-T5
At least 7
kalshi · KXTRUMPACT-26MAY24-T7
At least 10
kalshi · KXTRUMPACT-26MAY24-T10
At least 15
kalshi · KXTRUMPACT-26MAY24-T15
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.