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At least 5 presidential actions in the week of May 24, 2026

At least 5 is priced at 55¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 55¢ bid, 56¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 8 inside Will there be at least.

Price history

55¢ current

+11¢
40¢50¢
May 24, 2026May 24, 2026

Contract brief

If Donald Trump has taken at least 5 presidential actions from May 24, 2026 through May 30, 2026 (as checked on the “Presidential Actions” page at whitehouse.gov at 10:00 AM ET on May 31, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

At least 5

Rank

#5 of 8

Leader

At least 1 98¢

Range

3¢-98¢

Family volume

$2K

Identifier

KXTRUMPACT-26MAY24-T5

May 25, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 19m ago

Implied probability

55¢
Latest venue quote
May 25, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 19m ago

Bid

55¢

Ask

56¢

Spread

24h volume

$350

Family rank

#5 of 8

8 outcomes · Will there be at least

Closes

May 31, 2026

Family volume

$2K

Orderbook snapshot

55 / 56¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
55¢340
54¢5
53¢10
52¢100
45¢50
AskSize
56¢557
75¢200
82¢46
83¢1.1K
98¢200

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Donald Trump has taken at least 5 presidential actions from May 24, 2026 through May 30, 2026 (as checked on the “Presidential Actions” page at whitehouse.gov at 10:00 AM ET on May 31, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

May 31, 2026

Identifier

KXTRUMPACT-26MAY24-T5

SF Signal
SF Index
3390.93
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

4539.9%

IY (No)

6781.9%

Adj IY

3391%

CRI

1

Overround

2.4%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

4539.9%
6781.9%
Adj IY
3391%
1
Overround
2.4%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.