More than 100 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from May 25, 2026 to May 31, 2026
Above 100 is priced at 6¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 6¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #10 of 10 inside Will there be more than.
Price history
6¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 100 from May 25, 2026 to May 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 100
Rank
#10 of 10
Leader
Above 5 99¢
Range
6¢-99¢
Family volume
$13K
Identifier
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T100
May 28, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
6¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$409
Family rank
#10 of 10
10 outcomes · Will there be more than
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
Family volume
$13K
Orderbook snapshot
6 / 7¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 100 from May 25, 2026 to May 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
Identifier
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T100
Event family
Will there be more than.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$13K
Outcomes
10
Highest price
Above 5 99¢
Current share
3%
Above 5
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T5
Above 10
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T10
Above 15
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T15
Above 20
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T20
Above 25
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T25
Above 30
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T30
Above 40
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T40
Above 50
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T50
Above 75
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T75
Above 100
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T100
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 6% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.