More than 5 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from May 25, 2026 to May 31, 2026
Above 5 is priced at 99¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 99¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 10 inside Will there be more than.
Price history
99¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 5 from May 25, 2026 to May 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 5
Rank
#1 of 10
Leader
Above 5 99¢
Range
3¢-99¢
Family volume
$31K
Identifier
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T5
May 28, 2026, 6:46 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
99¢
Ask
100¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$6K
Family rank
#1 of 10
10 outcomes · Will there be more than
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
Family volume
$31K
Orderbook snapshot
99 / 100¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 5 from May 25, 2026 to May 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
Identifier
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T5
Event family
Will there be more than.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$31K
Outcomes
10
Highest price
Above 5 99¢
Current share
18%
Above 5
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T5
Above 10
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T10
Above 15
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T15
Above 20
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T20
Above 25
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T25
Above 30
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T30
Above 40
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T40
Above 50
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T50
Above 75
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T75
Above 100
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T100
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.625
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 99% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.