Will there be over 6.5 total games in the Phoenix vs Oklahoma City 1st Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball playoffs?

Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will there be over 6.5 total games in the Phoenix vs Oklahoma City 1st Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball playoffs?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely unlikely outcome—a 7-game series between Phoenix and Oklahoma City—at just 3¢, implying only a 3% probability despite best-of-seven first-round formats making 6 or 7-game series reasonably common in NBA history.

░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
3¢
Bid/Ask 0/8¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $5·Closes May 17, 2026·25d remaining
KXNBASERIESGAMES-26PHXOKCR1-7
7-day price4 snapshots · 3 regime
3¢3¢ current
Apr 181¢Apr 19

Analysis

3d ago

This market is pricing in an extremely unlikely outcome—a 7-game series between Phoenix and Oklahoma City—at just 3¢, implying only a 3% probability despite best-of-seven first-round formats making 6 or 7-game series reasonably common in NBA history. The 11¢ spread and minimal $5 volume indicate severe illiquidity, making the astronomical 41,753% implied yield on Yes positions largely theoretical and unreliable as a true market signal. With 28 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, this appears to be a thin, speculative market where the pricing may not reflect genuine probability assessment.

Resolution rules

If above 6.5 games are played in the Phoenix vs Oklahoma City 1st Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 47022.3%
IY (No) 45.0%
Adj IY 23511%
CRI 32
Overround -0.5%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)47022.3%
IY (No)45.0%
Adj IY23511%
CRI32
Overround-0.5%

Regime

Label
taker
Score
0.636
Spread
8¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 5:11:42 PM
Observability directEvent type sports
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 5:08:24 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXNBASERIESGAMES-26PHXOKCR1-7 yes 100

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions