Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-4?
This contract is priced at 69¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 68¢ bid, 69¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
2
Family volume
$100K
Best sibling
Ed Gallrein 31¢
Ticker
KXKY4R-26-TMAS
Market snapshot
Thomas Massie in market context.
This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-4?. The displayed quote is 69¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $55K. In the KXKY4R-26 family, this outcome ranks #1 of 2 by current quote across 2 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC.
Outcome
Thomas Massie
Family rank
#1 of 2
Venue
Kalshi
Current quote
69¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Nov 3, 2026
24h volume
$55K
Family context
2 outcomes · KXKY4R-26
Quote range
31¢-68¢
Family leader
Thomas Massie 68¢
Last updated
May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 12m ago
Venue identifier: KXKY4R-26-TMAS. Family volume: $100K.
Price history
69¢ current
+3¢Orderbook snapshot
68 / 69¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If Thomas Massie wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 KY-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Identifier
KXKY4R-26-TMAS
Event family
KXKY4R-26.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$100K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Thomas Massie 68¢
Current share
55%
Thomas Massie
kalshi · KXKY4R-26-TMAS
Ed Gallrein
kalshi · KXKY4R-26-EGAL
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
Read 69% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.