Todd Warner · KXTNPRIMARY-09R26
Todd Warner is priced at 3¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 26¢ ask, 23¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside KXTNPRIMARY-09R26.
Price history
3¢ current
−5¢Contract brief
If Todd Warner wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 TN-09 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Todd Warner
Rank
#2 of 4
Leader
Brent Taylor 73¢
Range
1¢-73¢
Family volume
$31
Identifier
KXTNPRIMARY-09R26-TWAR
May 28, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 29m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
26¢
Spread
23¢
Reported volume
$1K
Family rank
#2 of 4
4 outcomes · KXTNPRIMARY-09R26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$31
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 26¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Todd Warner wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 TN-09 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXTNPRIMARY-09R26-TWAR
Event family
KXTNPRIMARY-09R26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$31
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Brent Taylor 73¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.