Will Tom Steyer finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will Tom Steyer finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $175 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 28¢ price potentially unreliable for serious position-taking.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $175 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 28¢ price potentially unreliable for serious position-taking. The implied yield on the Yes side (239.8%) is extraordinarily high relative to the neutral regime and moderate cliff risk, suggesting either severe mispricing or that traders are demanding substantial compensation for the illiquidity risk. The sharp 146% price surge over seven days (11¢ to 27¢) warrants caution—it could reflect genuine new information about Steyer's 2026 viability or simply thin-market volatility given the minimal open interest.
Resolution rules
If Tom Steyer finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2-TSTE yes 100