Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026 is priced at 7¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 6¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
7¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Outcome
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$538
Identifier
0x4c8ceef9...2ede
Jun 7, 2026, 7:08 AM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
6¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$538
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$538
Orderbook snapshot
6 / 7¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x4c8ceef9…2ede
Event family
Related outcomes.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$538
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026 7¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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SimpleFunctions context
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Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 7% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.