Brett Giroir · Will Trump nominate
Brett Giroir is priced at 5¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 4¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 7 inside Will Trump nominate.
Price history
5¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If Brett Giroir is nominated for FDA commissioner after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029. then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Brett Giroir
Rank
#4 of 7
Leader
Kyle Diamantas 17¢
Range
4¢-17¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXFDANOM-29-BGIR
May 25, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$131
Family rank
#4 of 7
7 outcomes · Will Trump nominate
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 11¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Brett Giroir is nominated for FDA commissioner after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029. then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Identifier
KXFDANOM-29-BGIR
Event family
Will Trump nominate.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Kyle Diamantas 17¢
Current share
—
Kyle Diamantas
kalshi · KXFDANOM-29-KDIA
Mehmet Oz
kalshi · KXFDANOM-29-MOZ
Stephen Hahn
kalshi · KXFDANOM-29-SHAH
Brett Giroir
kalshi · KXFDANOM-29-BGIR
Sara Brenner
kalshi · KXFDANOM-29-SBRE
Nicole Saphier
kalshi · KXFDANOM-29-NSAP
Brian Christine
kalshi · KXFDANOM-29-BCHR
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.