Will Trump nominate Stephen Hahn as FDA commissioner
Leader sits at 20% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Kyle Diamantas
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
Mehmet Oz
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$229
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
968 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump nominate
Will Trump nominate Kyle Diamantas as FDA commissioner?: Kyle Diamantas
KXFDANOM-29-KDIA
Will Trump nominate Sara Brenner as FDA commissioner?: Sara Brenner
KXFDANOM-29-SBRE
Will Trump nominate Nicole Saphier as FDA commissioner?: Nicole Saphier
KXFDANOM-29-NSAP
Will Trump nominate Mehmet Oz as FDA commissioner?: Mehmet Oz
KXFDANOM-29-MOZ
Will Trump nominate Brett Giroir as FDA commissioner?: Brett Giroir
KXFDANOM-29-BGIR
Will Trump nominate Brian Christine as FDA commissioner?: Brian Christine
KXFDANOM-29-BCHR
Will Trump nominate Stephen Hahn as FDA commissioner?: Stephen Hahn
KXFDANOM-29-SHAH
Analysis
This market measures the likelihood that President Trump will nominate Stephen Hahn as FDA commissioner during his current administration. Hahn, a former FDA commissioner under Trump (2019-2021), is currently considered a lower-probability candidate compared to Kyle Diamantas, who leads at 28%. The market pricing reflects uncertainty about Trump's final nomination decision, which remains unmade. Key drivers of Hahn's relatively lower probability include active competition from other candidates receiving higher trading interest, the FDA commissioner role's prominence making it difficult to predict Trump's preference among multiple qualified contenders, and limited recent public signals about Hahn's interest or Trump's intentions toward him specifically. The outcome will be definitively resolved once Trump formally nominates and announces a candidate—an event with no confirmed timeline but typically occurring within the first few months of a presidency. Until then, traders are pricing in base rates of FDA candidate viability alongside any available reporting about candidate positioning.
- ›Hahn's 28% probability ranks below the leading candidate (Kyle Diamantas at 28%) and significantly above mid-tier candidates like Mehmet Oz (14%), suggesting moderate but not primary consideration among contract participants
- ›No scheduled announcement date has been publicly confirmed for Trump's FDA commissioner nomination, creating open-ended uncertainty that may persist for months
- ›Hahn previously served as FDA commissioner (2019-2021), providing track record and familiarity that could either support or disfavor a second nomination depending on Trump's assessment
- ›Trading volume across most contracts remains minimal ($0 24h volume on six of seven listed candidates), indicating thin liquidity and potentially unrepresentative pricing
- ›The multi-outcome structure means Hahn must compete against six other named candidates plus potential unlisted nominees, with limited information about Trump's actual preference distribution
What moved the line
- May 21Kyle Diamantas↑23pp9→32¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Kyle Diamantas↓18pp32→14¢ · Kalshi
- May 23Kyle Diamantas↑5pp14→19¢ · Kalshi
- May 21Mehmet Oz↑4pp7→11¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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