Will Trump nominate Stephen Hahn as FDA commissioner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 49% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
49%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
2 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
884 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 21% of their title tokens — “Will Trump nominate Heidi Overton as FDA commissioner” vs “Will Stephen Ferrara be nominated for FDA commissioner before Jan 20, 2029”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Trump nominate Heidi Overton as FDA commissioner
Will Trump nominate Heidi Overton as FDA commissioner?: Heidi Overton
KXFDANOM-29-HOVE
Cluster 2
Will Stephen Ferrara be nominated for FDA commissioner before Jan 20, 2029
Will Stephen Ferrara be nominated for FDA commissioner before Jan 20, 2029?: Stephen Ferrara
KXFDANOM-29-SFER
Analysis
This market measures the likelihood that President Trump will nominate Stephen Hahn as FDA commissioner during his current administration. Hahn, a former FDA commissioner under Trump (2019-2021), is currently considered a lower-probability candidate compared to Kyle Diamantas, who leads at 28%. The market pricing reflects uncertainty about Trump's final nomination decision, which remains unmade. Key drivers of Hahn's relatively lower probability include active competition from other candidates receiving higher trading interest, the FDA commissioner role's prominence making it difficult to predict Trump's preference among multiple qualified contenders, and limited recent public signals about Hahn's interest or Trump's intentions toward him specifically. The outcome will be definitively resolved once Trump formally nominates and announces a candidate—an event with no confirmed timeline but typically occurring within the first few months of a presidency. Until then, traders are pricing in base rates of FDA candidate viability alongside any available reporting about candidate positioning.
- ›Hahn's 28% probability ranks below the leading candidate (Kyle Diamantas at 28%) and significantly above mid-tier candidates like Mehmet Oz (14%), suggesting moderate but not primary consideration among contract participants
- ›No scheduled announcement date has been publicly confirmed for Trump's FDA commissioner nomination, creating open-ended uncertainty that may persist for months
- ›Hahn previously served as FDA commissioner (2019-2021), providing track record and familiarity that could either support or disfavor a second nomination depending on Trump's assessment
- ›Trading volume across most contracts remains minimal ($0 24h volume on six of seven listed candidates), indicating thin liquidity and potentially unrepresentative pricing
- ›The multi-outcome structure means Hahn must compete against six other named candidates plus potential unlisted nominees, with limited information about Trump's actual preference distribution
What moved the line
- Aug 19Heidi Overton↑60pp18→78¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Stephen Ferrara↓5pp8→3¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Heidi Overton↑4pp12→16¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (49% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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