Kyle Diamantas · Will Trump nominate
Kyle Diamantas is priced at 23¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 18¢ bid, 23¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 7 inside Will Trump nominate.
Price history
23¢ current
+21¢Contract brief
If Kyle Diamantas is nominated for FDA commissioner after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029. then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Kyle Diamantas
Rank
#1 of 7
Leader
Kyle Diamantas 18¢
Range
4¢-18¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXFDANOM-29-KDIA
May 25, 2026, 8:38 AM UTC · 27m ago
Implied probability
Bid
18¢
Ask
23¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$4K
Family rank
#1 of 7
7 outcomes · Will Trump nominate
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
18 / 23¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Kyle Diamantas is nominated for FDA commissioner after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029. then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Identifier
KXFDANOM-29-KDIA
Event family
Will Trump nominate.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Kyle Diamantas 18¢
Current share
—
Kyle Diamantas
kalshi · KXFDANOM-29-KDIA
Mehmet Oz
kalshi · KXFDANOM-29-MOZ
Stephen Hahn
kalshi · KXFDANOM-29-SHAH
Brian Christine
kalshi · KXFDANOM-29-BCHR
Brett Giroir
kalshi · KXFDANOM-29-BGIR
Nicole Saphier
kalshi · KXFDANOM-29-NSAP
Sara Brenner
kalshi · KXFDANOM-29-SBRE
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.