Melania · Will Trump say "
Melania is priced at 88¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 88¢ bid, 90¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 16 inside Will Trump say ".
Price history
88¢ current
+10¢Contract brief
If Melania, or a plural or possessive form of Melania, is stated by Donald Trump after May 25th at 5:00pm ET and before Jun 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Melania
Rank
#4 of 16
Leader
Uranium 99¢
Range
1¢-99¢
Family volume
$40K
Identifier
KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-MELA
May 26, 2026, 9:08 AM UTC · 28m ago
Implied probability
Bid
88¢
Ask
90¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$676
Family rank
#4 of 16
16 outcomes · Will Trump say "
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
Family volume
$40K
Orderbook snapshot
88 / 90¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Melania, or a plural or possessive form of Melania, is stated by Donald Trump after May 25th at 5:00pm ET and before Jun 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
Identifier
KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-MELA
Event family
Will Trump say ".
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$40K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Uranium 99¢
Current share
2%
Uranium
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-URAN
Hottest
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-HOTT
Barack Hussein Obama
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-BARA
Melania
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-MELA
Transgender
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-TRAN
Ballroom
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-BALL
Landslide
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-LAND
Mutilation / Mutilization
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-MUTI
Newscum
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-NEWS
Drill Baby Drill
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-DRIL
Stupid Question
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-STUP
Pope
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-POPE
Crypto / Bitcoin
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-CRYP
Golden Dome
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-GOLD
Epstein
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-EPST
Mog / Mogged / Mogging
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-MOG
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Event Probability API
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World State API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.