SimpleFunctions

Barack Hussein Obama · Will Trump say "

Barack Hussein Obama is priced at 99¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 99¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside Will Trump say ".

Price history

99¢ current

+14¢
80¢90¢100¢
May 25, 2026May 27, 2026

Contract brief

If Barack Hussein Obama, or a plural or possessive form of Barack Hussein Obama, is stated by Donald Trump after May 25th at 5:00pm ET and before Jun 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Barack Hussein Obama

Rank

#1 of 16

Leader

Barack Hussein Obama 99¢

Range

1¢-99¢

Family volume

$78K

Identifier

KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-BARA

May 28, 2026, 8:01 PM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

99¢
Latest venue quote
May 28, 2026, 8:01 PM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

99¢

Ask

100¢

Spread

24h volume

$11K

Family rank

#1 of 16

16 outcomes · Will Trump say "

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

Family volume

$78K

Orderbook snapshot

99 / 100¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
99¢888K
93¢267
92¢29
91¢861
83¢156
AskSize

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Barack Hussein Obama, or a plural or possessive form of Barack Hussein Obama, is stated by Donald Trump after May 25th at 5:00pm ET and before Jun 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

Identifier

KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-BARA

SF Signal
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

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SimpleFunctions context

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.