Will Tucker Carlson be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Tucker Carlson be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing an 11% probability of criminal charges against Tucker Carlson by year-end 2026, with extremely thin liquidity ($2,019.88 open interest and $375.47 daily volume) creating a wide 6¢ bid-ask spread.
Analysis
The market is pricing an 11% probability of criminal charges against Tucker Carlson by year-end 2026, with extremely thin liquidity ($2,019.88 open interest and $375.47 daily volume) creating a wide 6¢ bid-ask spread. The asymmetric implied yields—3,380% for Yes versus 5.9% for No—reflect the low base rate and illiquidity rather than genuine conviction, with a moderate cliff risk index of 24 suggesting potential volatility near resolution. Price stability over seven days (flat at 4¢) combined with 259 days to expiry indicates limited recent information flow or market attention to this outcome.
Resolution rules
If Tucker Carlson has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-TCAR yes 100