USA · KXWCGROUPQUAL-26D
USA is priced at 79¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 79¢ bid, 84¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside KXWCGROUPQUAL-26D.
Price history
79¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
If USA is one of the teams to qualify from Group D for the Round of 32 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
USA
Rank
#1 of 4
Leader
USA 79¢
Range
43¢-79¢
Family volume
$57
Identifier
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26D-USA
May 25, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 25m ago
Implied probability
Bid
79¢
Ask
84¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$54
Family rank
#1 of 4
4 outcomes · KXWCGROUPQUAL-26D
Closes
Jul 11, 2026
Family volume
$57
Orderbook snapshot
79 / 84¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If USA is one of the teams to qualify from Group D for the Round of 32 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 11, 2026
Identifier
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26D-USA
Event family
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26D.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$57
Outcomes
4
Highest price
USA 79¢
Current share
95%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
sports
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.