↓130 · Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026
↓130 is priced at 15¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 9¢ bid, 20¢ ask, 11¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 11 inside Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?.
Price history
15¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com low price (“L”) for any USD/JPY hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday. This market will resolve as soon as any finalized USD/JPY hourly candle is equal to or below the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date. This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “L” figure located at the top of the USD/JPY Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-jpy-chart).
Outcome
↓130
Rank
#8 of 11
Leader
↓150 55¢
Range
10¢-55¢
Family volume
$24K
Identifier
0x22d37526...bf06
Jun 17, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
9¢
Ask
20¢
Spread
11¢
24h volume
$27
Family rank
#8 of 11
11 outcomes · Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$24K
Orderbook snapshot
9 / 20¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com low price (“L”) for any USD/JPY hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday. This market will resolve as soon as any finalized USD/JPY hourly candle is equal to or below the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date. This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “L” figure located at the top of the USD/JPY Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-jpy-chart).
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x22d37526…bf06
Event family
Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$24K
Outcomes
11
Highest price
↓150 55¢
Current share
2%
↓150
polymarket · 0xde0a3f43eb86d7f614d92c8fe01fa9514dbc2aa91d25887076de32ac801bb4dc
↑165
polymarket · 0xdea9c31e8e1e7dc4a8a6f6b00d2140ea19611ee113ec4a6f3272ab0206edc896
↑170
polymarket · 0xc0b5930ff2e3da66d7aef7ecf03deb1f103695619200f1a04e4d6daf253d902a
↓140
polymarket · 0x875551b5b91c12c3c67243a8a1e527189636d58670bebe0a5c13a82b03d76fac
↓120
polymarket · 0x5f4dcc5116361ce0a7de7d12c0873f578a01cff707f801bf5981eb2778984a60
↑175
polymarket · 0x358aa8147391b06bc338c51110ab838105fb2c9eea055acd6524d550086cfb59
↑180
polymarket · 0x5a09e87248069e2b83e73424e83a6c7eece9b4982e36ff8aed1fbacda2ce9b54
↓110
polymarket · 0x3a74eb35bcd12d37ef7221614e4c870020365a74eb9abb8c4af03d2ca1486eeb
↓130
polymarket · 0x22d375264b9c64c0bb7a1cc3bc2f4756bebe007f2eca377cb968c8000ec7bf06
↑190
polymarket · 0x8974d020df9227eb0d8c76cf8842a0a3c15d62e8bfe0183b589a427f54020c3a
↑200
polymarket · 0xaad6d2d4501b25ad1fd3a4b82c3228f422cc89b24df360f4825454215d64e746
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.