Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?
Leader sits at 51% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 44%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↓150
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
44¢
↑165
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$433
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
241 days
Venue
Polymarket
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026
Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?: ↓120
0x5f4dcc…4a60
Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?: ↓110
0x3a74eb…6eeb
Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?: ↓150
0xde0a3f…b4dc
Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?: ↓140
0x875551…6fac
Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?: ↓130
0x22d375…bf06
Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?: ↑165
0xdea9c3…c896
Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?: ↑175
0x358aa8…fb59
Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?: ↑190
0x8974d0…0c3a
Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?: ↑170
0xc0b593…902a
Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?: ↑180
0x5a09e8…9b54
Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?: ↑200
0xaad6d2…e746
Analysis
This contract represents an even-odds bet that USD/JPY will reach 165 or higher at some point during 2026. The current 50% probability reflects balanced disagreement among traders about whether yen weakness will persist. USD/JPY strength depends primarily on diverging interest rate expectations: if the Federal Reserve maintains higher rates while the Bank of Japan remains accommodative, upward pressure increases; conversely, if BoJ tightening accelerates or Fed cuts become more aggressive, downside pressure intensifies. The pair currently trades below 165, so this represents a meaningful rally requirement. Key drivers include Fed policy communications over the next 6-12 months, BoJ meeting decisions and guidance, and relative inflation trends between the two economies. Resolution depends on whether spot rates touch this level before year-end.
- ›Current USD/JPY spot rate relative to 165 level and recent trading range volatility
- ›Federal Reserve rate expectations versus Bank of Japan policy trajectory through 2026
- ›US-Japan inflation differential and economic growth forecasts affecting rate-setting decisions
- ›Trading volumes and historical mean-reversion patterns for USD/JPY in the 155-170 range
- ›Geopolitical developments affecting safe-haven demand and carry trade positioning
What moved the line
- Apr 28↓140↑26pp17→43¢ · Polymarket
- May 1↓140↓14pp43→29¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28↑180↑14pp10→24¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28↓120↓13pp37→24¢ · Polymarket
- May 3↑200↓13pp23→10¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.