Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by April 30?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
34%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$259
20 contracts
Top contract
13¢
$212 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026
Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↑1600
0xe5b0f3…bd01
Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↓1350
0x8602b2…b662
Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↓1100
0x00db2b…cc38
Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↓1400
0x470488…e43f
Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↑2000
0x4b7b69…4173
Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↓1000
0x817a57…dcd5
Cluster 2
Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026
Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?: ↓120
0x5f4dcc…4a60
Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?: ↓150
0xde0a3f…b4dc
Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?: ↑180
0x5a09e8…9b54
Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?: ↓130
0x22d375…bf06
Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?: ↑170
0xc0b593…902a
Cluster 3
Will GBP/USD hit __ in 2026
Cluster 4
Will USD/CAD hit __ in 2026
Cluster 5
Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026
Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↑ 1.35
0xa3f6c3…cfc6
Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↑ 1.20
0x126e76…220e
What moved the line
- Apr 28↑180↑14pp10→24¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28↓120↓13pp37→24¢ · Polymarket
- May 1↑1.45↑13pp35→48¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30↓120↓11pp24→13¢ · Polymarket
- May 1↓1350↓11pp50→39¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in iran
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
Iran Military Operations Continue — Regime Stability at 8¢ for June, Oil Disruption Ongoing
The US military campaign against Iran continues with near-zero odds of operations ending in April (2¢) and only 33¢ for May. The Iranian regime itself is priced at 8¢ to fall by June 30, and Kharg Island seizure is at 12¢ for May 31. The Hormuz disruption is the key transmission mechanism to global markets.
Strait of Hormuz Normalization Reprices: May Contract Jumps +5¢ as Iran Tensions Evolve
The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by end of May jumped +5¢ to 39¢ while the April contract expired at 0¢. This repricing suggests traders see meaningful probability of a US-Iran deal or de-escalation within the next month, with direct oil market implications.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 12 min ago.