Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by April 30?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
34%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$37
20 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
196 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026
Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↑1600
0xe5b0f3…bd01
Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↓1350
0x8602b2…b662
Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↓1100
0x00db2b…cc38
Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↓1400
0x470488…e43f
Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↑2000
0x4b7b69…4173
Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↓1000
0x817a57…dcd5
Cluster 2
Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026
Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?: ↓130
0x22d375…bf06
Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?: ↑170
0xc0b593…902a
Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?: ↑180
0x5a09e8…9b54
Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?: ↓150
0xde0a3f…b4dc
Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?: ↓120
0x5f4dcc…4a60
Cluster 3
Will GBP/USD hit __ in 2026
Cluster 4
Will USD/CAD hit __ in 2026
Cluster 5
Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026
Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↑ 1.35
0xa3f6c3…cfc6
Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↑ 1.20
0x126e76…220e
What moved the line
- Jun 13↓1350↓18pp69→51¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16↓150↑17pp49→66¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 11↓1.10↓13pp42→29¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 11↑1.45↓13pp61→48¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 17↓1.10↓10pp44→34¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in iran
- Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen to normal shipping?last 48% · 0d
- Will Iran Play in the World Cuplast 97% · 1d
- IR Iran vs. New Zealandlast 55% · 1d
- US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027last 96% · 2d
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30last 83% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
Iran Uranium Enrichment Deal Odds Surge 20 Points
The probability that Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by June 30 has jumped from 40¢ to 60¢, the largest single-day move in this contract. Trading volume is very high, suggesting a potential leak, official statement, or significant progress in talks.
US-Iran Diplomatic Hopes Collapse for Mid-June
The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15 has collapsed by 39 points to just 3¢, and the June 16 contract is down 47 points to 6¢. This is the clearest signal that the market sees immediate, high-level talks as very unlikely, even as a broader peace deal is considered a certainty.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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