SimpleFunctions
KalshiMay 17, 20263 days left

Will Wolfsburg be Relegated from Bundesliga in 2025-26 Season?

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 13 May 2026Methodology

This contract is priced at 7¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 6¢ bid, 98¢ ask, 92¢ spread.

Implied probability

7¢
$491 volume
$393 liquidity
1228% of event volume

Event outcomes

12

Family volume

$40

Best sibling

Heidenheim 76¢

Ticker

KXBUNDESLIGARELEGATION-26-WOB

Market snapshot

Wolfsburg in market context.

This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will Wolfsburg be Relegated from Bundesliga in 2025-26 Season?. The displayed quote is 7¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $491. In the KXBUNDESLIGARELEGATION-26 family, this outcome ranks #5 of 12 by current quote across 12 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 13, 2026, 4:53 PM UTC.

Outcome

Wolfsburg

Family rank

#5 of 12

Venue

Kalshi

Current quote

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until May 17, 2026

Reported volume

$491

Family context

12 outcomes · KXBUNDESLIGARELEGATION-26

Quote range

1¢-76¢

Family leader

Heidenheim 76¢

Last updated

May 13, 2026, 4:53 PM UTC · 12m ago

Venue identifier: KXBUNDESLIGARELEGATION-26-WOB. Family volume: $40.

Price history

7¢ current

20¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 13, 2026May 13, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

6 / 98¢

Kalshi
92¢ spread
BidSize
100¢495
6¢5
5¢100
3¢50
AskSize
98¢80
99¢1

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If Wolfsburg is relegated from Bundesliga in 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

May 17, 2026

Identifier

KXBUNDESLIGARELEGATION-26-WOB

SF Signal
SF Index
100000.00
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

CRI

16

VR

0.98

IAR

0.8/h

Overround

0.9%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.341

Observability

low

Event type

sports

Full indicator table

16
VR
0.98
IAR
0.8/h
Overround
0.9%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.