Will St. Pauli be Relegated from Bundesliga in 2025-26 Season

30-day trend

Analysis

The 25% probability reflects market expectations that FC St. Pauli will drop from the Bundesliga to the second division by the end of the 2025-26 season. St. Pauli's relegation probability sits between the severe risks facing English Premier League strugglers and the minimal risk assigned to mid-table European teams. The primary drivers of this assessment are the club's historical volatility in top-flight competition and its recent league position relative to the relegation zone. The biggest uncertainty resolver will be St. Pauli's performance through the winter break and January transfer window, which typically determine whether mid-table clubs stabilize or enter a relegation battle. Final match performance in April-May 2026 will definitively establish whether the club finishes above or below the automatic relegation places.

• ›St. Pauli's current league standing relative to the three automatic relegation positions and the playoff position (18th place) as of early May 2026
• ›Goal differential and points accumulation rate compared to historical Bundesliga relegation thresholds
• ›Changes to squad composition during summer 2025 and January 2026 transfer windows, including departures of key players
• ›Head-to-head records and recent form trends against other relegation-threatened clubs in the second half of the season
• ›Coaching stability and tactical adjustments made by management in response to mid-season performance

What moved the line

• May 8St. Pauli↑5pp55→60¢ · Kalshi
• May 6Heidenheim↑4pp88→92¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds