Fresno · Will Xavier Becerra win
Fresno is priced at 10¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 23¢ ask, 16¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 10 inside Will Xavier Becerra win.
Price history
10¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If Xavier Becerra wins the the first round of the 2026 California gubernatorial election in Fresno County, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Fresno
Rank
#8 of 10
Leader
Los Angeles 75¢
Range
1¢-75¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXPRIMARYCOUNTY-CAGOVPRIMARY1ST26JUN021ST-FRES
May 24, 2026, 1:38 PM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
7¢
Ask
23¢
Spread
16¢
Reported volume
$1
Family rank
#8 of 10
10 outcomes · Will Xavier Becerra win
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
7 / 23¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Xavier Becerra wins the the first round of the 2026 California gubernatorial election in Fresno County, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
Identifier
KXPRIMARYCOUNTY-CAGOVPRIMARY1ST26JUN021ST-FRES
Event family
Will Xavier Becerra win.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
10
Highest price
Los Angeles 75¢
Current share
—
Los Angeles
kalshi · KXPRIMARYCOUNTY-CAGOVPRIMARY1ST26JUN021ST-LANG
Monterey
kalshi · KXPRIMARYCOUNTY-CAGOVPRIMARY1ST26JUN021ST-MONT
Sacramento
kalshi · KXPRIMARYCOUNTY-CAGOVPRIMARY1ST26JUN021ST-SACR
Santa Clara
kalshi · KXPRIMARYCOUNTY-CAGOVPRIMARY1ST26JUN021ST-SCLA
San Diego
kalshi · KXPRIMARYCOUNTY-CAGOVPRIMARY1ST26JUN021ST-SDIE
Ventura
kalshi · KXPRIMARYCOUNTY-CAGOVPRIMARY1ST26JUN021ST-VENT
San Bernardino
kalshi · KXPRIMARYCOUNTY-CAGOVPRIMARY1ST26JUN021ST-SBER
Fresno
kalshi · KXPRIMARYCOUNTY-CAGOVPRIMARY1ST26JUN021ST-FRES
Contra Costa
kalshi · KXPRIMARYCOUNTY-CAGOVPRIMARY1ST26JUN021ST-CCOS
Riverside
kalshi · KXPRIMARYCOUNTY-CAGOVPRIMARY1ST26JUN021ST-RIVE
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.