Will Ken Paxton win Harris County
Leader sits at 63% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 54%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Harris
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
54¢
Bexar
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$2
thin orderbook
Closes
May 26, 2027
382 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Ken Paxton win
Will Ken Paxton win Travis County?: Travis
KXPRIMARYCOUNTY-SENATETXR26-TRA
Will Ken Paxton win El Paso County?: El Paso
KXPRIMARYCOUNTY-SENATETXR26-ELP
Will Ken Paxton win Tarrant County?: Tarrant
KXPRIMARYCOUNTY-SENATETXR26-TAR
Will Ken Paxton win Dallas County?: Dallas
KXPRIMARYCOUNTY-SENATETXR26-DAL
Will Ken Paxton win Bexar County?: Bexar
KXPRIMARYCOUNTY-SENATETXR26-BEX
Will Ken Paxton win Harris County?: Harris
KXPRIMARYCOUNTY-SENATETXR26-HAR
Analysis
This market estimates the probability that Ken Paxton wins Harris County in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary at 63%, based on pricing from multiple prediction contracts. The estimate reflects uncertainty about whether Paxton, the current Texas Attorney General, will secure victory in Texas's largest urban county during the Republican primary phase. Factors driving the current probability include Paxton's existing name recognition and political standing versus potential primary challengers, combined with Harris County's competitive electoral dynamics. The primary election itself will definitively resolve this market, as actual vote totals and county-level results become official. Between now and the election, polling data, campaign spending reports, endorsements, and primary debate performances could significantly shift expectations. Primary election day and subsequent official Harris County results certification represent the key catalyst that will determine the outcome.
- ›Paxton's current approval ratings and name recognition among Harris County Republicans versus main primary competitors
- ›Historical voting patterns in Harris County Republican primaries, including regional turnout and candidate performance trends
- ›Official Harris County primary election results on election day, which will definitively resolve the market
- ›Campaign spending and resource allocation in Harris County compared to challenger investments
- ›Public polling data released before the primary showing candidate preference levels among Harris County GOP primary voters
What moved the line
- May 7Dallas↓4pp13→9¢ · Kalshi
- May 3El Paso↓3pp35→32¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.