SimpleFunctions

You seem pretty sad for a girl so in love by Olivia Rodrigo have above 200000 Album Equivalent Units during the June 12, 2026 - June 18, 2026 tracking week

Above 200K is priced at 95¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 92¢ bid, 98¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love by Olivia Rodrigo have above.

Price history

95¢ current

+93¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢
May 14, 2026May 27, 2026

Contract brief

If you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love by Olivia Rodrigo has above 200K Album Equivalent Units during the June 12, 2026 - June 18, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above 200K

Rank

#3 of 16

Leader

Above 100K 97¢

Range

1¢-97¢

Family volume

$1K

Identifier

KXALBUMEQUIV-YOU26JUN18-200K

May 27, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 18m ago

Implied probability

95¢
Bid/ask midpoint
May 27, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 18m ago

Bid

92¢

Ask

98¢

Spread

Reported volume

$0

Family rank

#3 of 16

16 outcomes · Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love by Olivia Rodrigo have above

Closes

Jun 21, 2026

Family volume

$1K

Orderbook snapshot

92 / 98¢

Kalshi
6¢ spread
BidSize
92¢200
85¢40
48¢391
47¢300
20¢29
AskSize
98¢200
99¢100

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love by Olivia Rodrigo has above 200K Album Equivalent Units during the June 12, 2026 - June 18, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jun 21, 2026

Identifier

KXALBUMEQUIV-YOU26JUN18-200K

SF Signal
SF Index
16920.63
Regime
neutral

Browse this series

Artist Album-Equivalent-Units Forecast Markets
Per-series collection — every live contract in the KXALBUMEQUIV series on Kalshi, sorted by 24h volume.

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

127.9%

IY (No)

16920.6%

Adj IY

16921%

CRI

12

RV

1445%

VR

11.95

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

127.9%
16920.6%
Adj IY
16921%
12
RV
1445%
VR
11.95
IAR
0.7/h
Overround
4.9%

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

Opinionanalysis

Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026

Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ

Opinionanalysis

Volatility Arbitrage in Prediction Markets: Why Political Favorites Above 60¢ Are Systematically Underconfident

A binary contract at price p has variance p(1-p). Le 2026 (292M trades) finds political markets underconfident at slopes 0.93-1.83 — meaning a 70¢ contract corresponds to a true probability near 83%. Four systematic vol-arb trades follow from the calibration evidence.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.