SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

Artist Album-Equivalent-Units Forecast Markets — 174 contracts, SF signal on every row.

174 live Kalshi contracts (51 audited). Median implied probability sits at 44%. 108 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXALBUMEQUIV-APO26JUL30-260K -97c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXALBUMEQUIV.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXALBUMEQUIV
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXALBUMEQUIV
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXALBUMEQUIV",
    "label": "Artist Album-Equivalent-Units Forecast Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 174,
    "volume24hSum": 38431.61,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 13 Jul 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$38.4K-48%
min $13.9Kmax $102.6K
Breadth-8%-2.0pp
min -39%max 14%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 06:00 UTC
Jul 6past 7d · UTCJul 13 · 04:23

Live contracts

174

Median IY

44¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$38.4K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

-97¢

KXALBUMEQUIV-APO26JUL30-260K

Artist Album-Equivalent-Units Forecast Markets — liquidity topography (top 51 of 174 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 116.1 → 100000.0%

$10$100$1,000$10,0001d7d30d100000.050058.0116.1

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in Artist Album-Equivalent-Units Forecast Markets

Showing top 20 of 174

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will The Real Me by Future have above 160000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 10, 2026 -July 16, 2026 tracking week?: Above 160K19¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$11.4K
Will The Real Me by Future have above 140000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 10, 2026 -July 16, 2026 tracking week?: Above 140K82¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$10.2K
Will The Real Me by Future have above 180000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 10, 2026 -July 16, 2026 tracking week?: Above 180K8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$5.7K
Will The Real Me by Future have above 120000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 10, 2026 -July 16, 2026 tracking week?: Above 120K95¢
IY 303%Cliff 19Edge —RVol 279%Resid —$3.3K
Will The Real Me by Future have above 200000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 10, 2026 -July 16, 2026 tracking week?: Above 200K4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$2.1K
Will cartunez by Ken Carson have above 20000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 10, 2026 -July 16, 2026 tracking week?: Above 20K3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$623
Will Lost Weekend by Phoebe Bridgers have above 45000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 14, 2026 - August 20, 2026 tracking week?: Above 45K30¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$471
Will Oh yeah? by Steve Lacey have above 40000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 40K32¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$425
Will Oh yeah? by Steve Lacey have above 35000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 35K42¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 957%Resid —$424
Will The Real Me by Future have above 100000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 10, 2026 -July 16, 2026 tracking week?: Above 100K97¢
IY 178%Cliff 32Edge —RVol 766%Resid —$411
Will Ariana Grande have above 300000 Album Equivalent Units on Luminate during July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026?: Above 300K60¢
IY 890%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 229%Resid —$388
Will Oh yeah? by Steve Lacey have above 25000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 25K57¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$343
Will Oh yeah? by Steve Lacey have above 30000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 30K55¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$308
Will SET IN STONE by Rick Ross have above 10000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 10K65¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 142%Resid —$286
Will Oh yeah? by Steve Lacey have above 20000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 20K77¢
IY 817%Cliff 3Edge —RVol 964%Resid —$212
Will Lost Weekend by Phoebe Bridgers have above 50000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 14, 2026 - August 20, 2026 tracking week?: Above 50K22¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$210
Will Ariana Grande have above 400000 Album Equivalent Units on Luminate during July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026?: Above 400K21¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol 570%Resid —$147
Will Lost Weekend by Phoebe Bridgers have above 40000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 14, 2026 - August 20, 2026 tracking week?: Above 40K34¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$131
Will Ariana Grande have above 250000 Album Equivalent Units on Luminate during July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026?: Above 250K84¢
IY 254%Cliff 5Edge —RVol 117%Resid —$122
Will Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx have above 75000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week?: Above 75K71¢
IY 733%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 255%Resid —$122
174 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in Artist Album-Equivalent-Units Forecast Markets

From market_changes
2h agoKalshi
Will A*POP by Tyla have above 260000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week?: Above 260K
2¢99→2 (-97)
open →
14h agoKalshi
Will Black Boy (Alternative) by Dahi have above 5000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 28, 2026 - September 03, 2026 tracking week?: Above 5K
10¢90→10 (-80)
open →
14h agoKalshi
Will Reality Awaits by The Strokes have above 10000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week?: Above 10K
90¢10→90 (+80)
open →
14h agoKalshi
Will Black Boy (Alternative) by Dahi have above 5000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 28, 2026 - September 03, 2026 tracking week?: Above 5K
90¢10→90 (+80)
open →
14h agoKalshi
Will Reality Awaits by The Strokes have above 10000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week?: Above 10K
10¢90→10 (-80)
open →
14h agoKalshi
Will Reality Awaits by The Strokes have above 5000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week?: Above 5K
95¢19→95 (+76)
open →
14h agoKalshi
Will Reality Awaits by The Strokes have above 5000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week?: Above 5K
19¢95→19 (-76)
open →
14h agoKalshi
Will Chuck Timely & The Hourglass by ROLE MODEL have above 10000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 07, 2026 - August 13, 2026 tracking week?: Above 10K
51¢95→51 (-44)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 13 Jul 2026 05:39:00 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXALBUMEQUIV →

Category view

All Kalshi Entertainment markets. /markets/category/entertainment →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →