Buffalo's 1st Opponent at Highmark Stadium
Leader sits at 24% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
New England
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
New York J
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$25
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 8, 2026
66 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Buffalo's 1st Opponent at Highmark Stadium
Buffalo's 1st Opponent at Highmark Stadium: New England
KX1STHOMEGAME-BUF26-NE
Buffalo's 1st Opponent at Highmark Stadium: Detroit
KX1STHOMEGAME-BUF26-DET
Buffalo's 1st Opponent at Highmark Stadium: Kansas City
KX1STHOMEGAME-BUF26-KC
Buffalo's 1st Opponent at Highmark Stadium: New York J
KX1STHOMEGAME-BUF26-NYJ
Buffalo's 1st Opponent at Highmark Stadium: Miami
KX1STHOMEGAME-BUF26-MIA
Analysis
This probability indicates traders assess there is roughly a one-in-four chance New England will be Buffalo's first opponent at Highmark Stadium in the 2026 NFL season. The market currently favors the Patriots over four other AFC East and conference rivals, with New York Jets as the second-most likely opponent at 16%. The probability reflects underlying uncertainty about NFL scheduling, which typically releases in May. Key drivers include divisional scheduling rules (ensuring regular matchups between AFC East teams), the NFL's home-and-away rotation system, and strength-of-schedule considerations. Resolution depends on the official 2026 NFL schedule release, the specific timing of which determines when this market settles.
- ›NFL scheduling follows a fixed divisional rotation requiring Buffalo to play New England at least twice annually, with home/away alternation across seasons
- ›New York Jets currently prices at 16%, indicating meaningful probability mass on a non-divisional opponent opening the home schedule
- ›Kalshi shows minimal recent trading volume ($25 in 24h volume) for New England, suggesting limited new information flow to update the 24% level
- ›Schedule release dates and pre-release leaks would immediately resolve this uncertainty and likely cause repricing across all five outcomes
- ›Historical patterns of schedule construction and playoff-strength tiebreakers influence which opponent appears first, though these rules are deterministic once finalized
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.