Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano
Leader sits at 45% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Academia Puerto Cabello
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Draw (Academia Puerto Cabell
Spread
17pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano: Academia Puerto Cabello
0xe3e33b…3545
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano: CS Cienciano
0x1b0f42…ce64
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano: Draw (Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano)
0x5148d0…bf9f
Analysis
This 74% probability reflects market expectations that the Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano match will produce more than 1.5 total goals. The pricing is driven primarily by differing venue assessments: Polymarket contracts average 31% implied probability for outcomes, while Kalshi contracts show 29%, suggesting modest disagreement on match dynamics. The gap between contract types indicates uncertainty around team attacking patterns and defensive setup. With $31 in daily volume on the direct CS Cienciano winner contract (priced at 28¢), the market shows active interest but limited consensus on the final result. The match outcome itself—scheduled to resolve the winner-take-all contracts—represents the primary catalyst that will clarify whether goals or defensive play dominate.
- ›Polymarket's O/U 1.5 contract is priced at 74¢, representing the highest implied probability among all outcomes, suggesting market consensus leans toward a higher-scoring match
- ›CS Cienciano's direct win contract trades at 28¢ on Polymarket ($31 24h volume), matching draw probability exactly at 28¢, indicating near-even odds between those two outcomes
- ›Only $31 in 24-hour volume exists on the main winner market across all venues, suggesting limited liquidity and potential for repricing if new information emerges
- ›Academia Puerto Cabello (-1.5) contract trades at 16¢, the lowest probability of all outcomes, indicating market expectation of either a close match or CS Cienciano victory
- ›Both Teams to Score contract sits at 54¢, reflecting meaningful probability that offensive play from both sides occurs despite the high O/U 1.5 expectation
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.